Friday, June 13, 2008

EURO 2008's prediction

For pre-tournament, I have been studying and analysing to compile my first prediction for Euro 2008. It has been done since late of May. My first prediction on 31st May which I didn't put in my blog. So the prediction is outdated? Don't worry, predictions always change as long as the game is not over yet.

So on late of May, I have decided to predict using my own limited knowledge and update to compile the first prediction. The winner of Euro 2008, I would predicted that it had to be one of the past winners and including Portugal, meaning teams like Germany, Spain, Netherlands, France and Italy do stand a chance. My initial bet placed Germany, Spain, Netherlands and Portugal will be in the Top Four, ousting both Italy and France due to their unconsistency and poor performance.


For this edition of EURO, teams that will sail through the semi final are place in order that 2 slots are given for teams from Group A and B, while another 2 are from Group C and D. So there will be no such thing as a repeat of EURO 2004 with Portugal and Greece in the final. Therefore I have been analysing a few criteria to look through:

#1 : FIFA World Rankings

Some people disagree that the new FIFA World Ranking introduced in 2006 after the World Cup are fully credential and accurate to summarise the real picture of the team performance. Go here for the full Fifa Ranking. Based on the latest FIFA Ranking, the highest European team in the Championship are as follows:
  • Italy (no.3)
    Spain (no.4)
    Germany (no.5)
    Czech Republic (no.6)
    France (no.7)
    Greece (no.8)
    England (no.9)
    Netherlands (no.10)
    Portugal (no.11)
Nevertheless, the FIFA Ranking overseen the team performance over the period of four years, not the most current one. Therefore, the current performance is not reflected by simply a calculation of points accumulated over 48 months

#2: EURO Qualifying Stage
This is rather critical as all European teams from UEFA played a series of matches in order to qualify into EURO 2008 in 2006-2007.
The final result from Qualifying round are as follow: GROUP A - Poland and Portugal over Serbia; GROUP B - Italy and France over Scotland; GROUP C - Greece and Turkey over Norway; GROUP D - Czech Republic and Germany over Republic of Ireland: GROUP E - Croatia and Russia over England; GROUP F - Spain and Sweden over Northern Ireland; GROUP G - Romania and Netherlands over Bulgaria. The top two teams each qualifying groupa join co-host of Switzerland and Austria in the Finals.
Do bear in mind this fact, Italy and France, Romania and Netherlands, Spain and Sweden are drawn in the same group again in the Finals.

#3: Friendly matches leading to the EURO
After the domestic league ended in May, all teams have geared up for the Finals. Most of the big name suffered a major setback and stumbled in the friendlies. For instance teams like France and Italy were not performing on par standard. The German even drew with Belarus. Other teams also shown considerable performance over rivals.
For more on the international friendlies that lead to EURO, click here.

#4: In EURO, Maths are hard to be done. This is my second prediction an hour before the opening match to be televised.

GROUP A: Switzerland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Turkey.
Looking at this group, it should be easy for the Czech and Portuguese to sail thru, but the Swiss and Turks set to be a dark horse for this group. The main concern is only one; the underperformed Czech with weak striking force could be a critical point here and shown dismay during opening match with the Swiss. The Swiss is better in that game. Against Turkey in the last game will determines everything. I'm looking forward for Portugal as group champ followed by Czech Republic.

GROUP B: Austria, Germany, Poland and Croatia
I foresee a three way fight with Austria been the interrupter. Germany wasn't that impressive during friendlies but looks good against Poland. The Croats been the sole Balkan rep and shocked the world by twice defeating England is looking strong too. Last night, they beat the German. Poland do stand a chance but look dismay following controversial last minute penalty awarded to Austria with the match ended at level. It will be Germany and Croatia through but Germany set not to win the group.

GROUP C: France, Italy, Romania, Netherlands
Dubbed as the group of death, this is certainly helped to trim down the favourites and odds of teams to win the Euro. The EURO is much harder than World Cup due to the fact that there are abundant and concentrated good teams in it. It's another three-way fight but Romania can sail thru if they can pull-off major surprise. They manage to held France who look weak in striking force. The World Champion, Italy was stumbled with the biggest defeat in 25-years history, losing to Holland 0-3 thanks to controversial Nistelrooy goal. The finalists of World Cup look shaky but I'm sure one of them will qualify. It's a pretty tough call, but I'll say that Netherlands and Italy can go through.

GROUP D: Sweden, Spain, Russia, Greece
Can Greece defends their title? No and that answer is reaffirmed by their lost to Sweden in opening match. Sweden is not a major force in EURO but always seriously considered as one contender in any tournament. Russia is a dark horse since they qualified, damaging England's hope in qualifying round and was led by a football maestro, Guus Hiddink and therefore should not be underestimated. Spain looks to have a strong team with blend of superstars. If everything goes well, Spain and Sweden will go through.

In knock-out stages
From my prediction, I expect that the quarter-final will be like this:
Portugal vs Germany
Czech Republic vs Croatia
Netherlands vs Sweden
Spain vs Italy
Now this is getting tougher. In knockout stage, anything can happen. But from my prediction (no need to tell you why and how I select), I expect that the semi-finals will be like this:
Portugal vs Croatia
Netherlands vs Spain
And then, the final..................
Portugal vs Netherlands
The champion??
Netherlands, perhaps!!!
Okay, I'm more towards Netherlands because I'm a fan of the Dutch. But do remember that this predictions are solely pre-tournament!!



wil said...

i predict it's portugal vs germany.
ronaldo is destined to make ballack cry like a baby in this season. xD

BernardC said...

Well Wil, like i said b4 in the blog:
The finalist can be either one from Group A or B and another one from Group C and D. Portugal and Germany i expect they will meet in Quarter final, rather than final. Therefore, the best candidate for the final is Portugal (from Group A) and Netherlands (from Group C)

-Clare- said...

you're so crazy over football wei.
doing research and all. lol.

but its all good. football rocks to its core!

Netherlands was awesome yesterday!!
Beating France 4-1 is an incredible score.
I wonder how they do it man.
Beat both the world cup finalists!
I love LOVE sniejder's goal. =D

Yea, i gotta predict that netherlands is gonna advance to the finals with portugal
EVEN THOUGH I hope SPAIN!!!! can cause a major upset during the semi-finals and beat holland.

omg. im like writing a whole essay!! =P hahaha

BernardC said...

To Clare: Consider this, I don't know how on earth Holland did it. I'm a supporter of Holland but I never expect them to run over both World Cup finalists, trashing them by 3 goals each.

Wow,Spain narrowly missed their win over Sweden. I wonder many late goals and last minute goals kept coming in this tournament.

Post a Comment